A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
